####018002113#### FXXX10 KWNP 131231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 13-Jan 15 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 13-Jan 15 2026 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 06-09UT 1.67 3.00 2.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 15-18UT 4.00 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 4.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2026 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2026 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 13-15 Jan. ####018002415#### FXXX12 KWNP 131231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4336 (S09W32, Eho/beta) was stable and unremarkable. Region 4340 (N13E24, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit growth while Region 4334 (S16W64, Hrx/alpha) continued to decay during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity levels are expected to be low with a chance (25%) for M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) over 13-15 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the high level threshold at 12/1040 UTC and reached a peak flux of 2,380 pfu at 12/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels, with a slight enhancement after 12/1800 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels, with the greater than 10 MeV proton flux expected to remain below threshold, over 13-15 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected influence from the HSS associated with a negative polarity CH (located at the north-western solar quadrant). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) averaged 7-8 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component sustaining a negative (south) for most of the reporting period, reaching a max of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady near 550 km/s. Phi angle was negative. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 14 Jan as -CH HSS influence becomes the dominant feature in the solar wind near Earth. On 15 Jan, this forcing is expected to diminish, allowing the solar wind parameters to start returning to nominal levels. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was quiet to active during the period, reflecting the -CH HSS effects near Earth. .Forecast... Active geomagnetic activity levels are likely over 13-14 Jan due to the -CH HSS influences. On 15 Jan, unsettled levels are likely, reflecting the waning influence of this feature.