####018002099#### FXXX10 KWNP 220031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 00-03UT 4.00 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 2.33 06-09UT 3.67 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 3.00 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 1.00 4.00 15-18UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 21-00UT 2.00 1.67 4.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected to continue early on 22 Mar as CME influences continue. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002567#### FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C8.7/Sn flare at 21/1132 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E25, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The region continued to gradually grow over the past two hours. Newly numbered Regions 3619 (N17E61, Cao/beta) and 3618 (S20W62, Dao/beta) gradually developed. The remaining spots were either stable or in decay. Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region 3614 (N17E18, Dsc/beta) beginning after ~21/1730 UTC. An additional filament eruption was observed from the SW quadrant beginning after ~21/1830 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to analyze and model these events for Earth-directed components. .Forecast... Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) 21-23 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux are expected to remaining below alert threshold over the next three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the sun on 17 Mar. At approximately 21/0225 UTC total field values abruptly increased to 14-15 nT. The Bz component rotated southward to a maximum of -12 nT, with a couple periods of prolonged southward Bz observed after 21/1115 UTC and 21/1520 UTC. .Forecast... CME influences are expected to weaken over the course of 22 Mar with a return to a more ambient, background like solar wind environment on 23 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during the latter half of the day. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected for 22 Mar are the CME passes Earth. A return to a nominal, quiet geomagnetic environment is expected by 23 Mar. Active conditions are likely with an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS on 24 Mar. ####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 220031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 21 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3607 S19W76 317 120 8 DSO 5 B 3608 N10W66 307 20 2 CRO 3 B 3613 S24W82 323 70 6 CAO 2 B 3614 N17E18 223 180 8 DSO 4 B 3615 S12E25 216 310 13 EKC 24 BGD 3616 N02W73 314 20 2 HSX 1 A 3617 S15E56 185 150 6 CAO 2 B 3618 S20W62 303 60 5 DAO 5 B 3619 N17E61 179 130 4 CAO 5 B