####018003176#### FXXX12 KWNP 041231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M9.1/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 04/0619 UTC, the strongest of the period. A Type II (est. 950 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep along with a Tenflare were observed with the event. A CME is suspected to be associated with the flare but additional coronagraph imagery is need for conformation and analysis. This region and Region 3664 (S19E32, Ekc/beta-delta) continued to be most complex. Region 3666 (N07E10, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) also exhibited notable growth. Other eruptive activity included a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC from an unspotted area to the east of Region 3666 (N07E09, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). This event also produced a Type II (est. 392 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME, first seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC, was analyzed and modeled. The results suggested the slow-moving periphery should pass by Earth around 09 May. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 04-06 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 04-06 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 04-06 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from the low 400s to near 370/km/s by the periods end. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive polarity after 03/1830 UTC. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare from Region 3663. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field may reach unsettled and active levels on 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions and periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences. ####018002266#### FXXX10 KWNP 041231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 00-03UT 1.33 3.67 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 1.33 3.33 5.67 (G2) 06-09UT 0.67 2.67 5.67 (G2) 09-12UT 1.00 2.33 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 15-18UT 2.67 3.00 3.67 18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 04 2024 0619 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.