####018001949#### FXXX10 KWNP 140031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 14-Jan 16 2026 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 00-03UT 3.67 2.33 1.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.00 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 2.33 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 14-Jan 16 2026 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance (25%) R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 14-16 Jan. ####018002318#### FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2.4 at 13/1648 UTC from a region just beyond the SE limb near S10. Slight decay was observed in Regions 4334 (S16W70, Axx/alpha), 4336 (S09W39, Eho/beta), and 4340 (N14E17, Cso/beta). Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption, centered near S38W25, at 13/1150 UTC. Most of the material appeared reabsorbed in NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery. Further analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (25%) for M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) over 14-16 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,574 pfu at 13/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels on 14-16 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued under negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz (north-south) component was between +6/-7 nT. Solar wind speed was mostly between 500-600 km/s. Phi angle was negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 14 Jan as negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish to nominal levels on 15-16 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 Jan as HSS conditions persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 16 Jan. ####018000762#### AXXX82 KWNP 140031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jan 13 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4334 S16W70 198 10 1 AXX 1 A 4336 S09W39 167 250 13 EHO 12 B 4340 N14E17 111 30 7 CSO 6 B