####018002756#### FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.7/Sn flare at 22/0505 UTC from Region 3615 (S1213E10, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The region continued to gradually grow and develop maturing penumbra over the course of the period. Newly numbered Regions 3619 (N17E61, Cao/beta) and 3618 (S20W62, Dao/beta) gradually developed. The remaining spots were either stable or in decay. Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region 3614 (N17E18, Dsc/beta) beginning after ~21/1730 UTC. An additional filament eruption was observed from the SW quadrant beginning after ~21/1830 UTC. Both events have been modeled with the latter being a clear miss ahead of Earths orbit and the former delivering a glancing blow by late on 25 Mar. .Forecast... Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) 21-23 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux are expected to remaining below alert threshold over the next three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated weakening influences of a CME that left the Sun on 17 Mar. Total field decreased from 13-13 nT to 8-10 nT. The Bz component of the IMF began the period in a prolonged southward deflection reaching -12 nT, but was mostly northward in the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds varied between ~320-350 km/s, and phi was mostly variable as well. .Forecast... CME influences are expected to weaken over the course of 22 Mar with a return to a more ambient, background like solar wind environment on 23 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during the first half of the period. .Forecast... Primarily unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 22 Mar under waning CME effects. A return to a nominal, quiet geomagnetic environment is expected by 23 Mar. Active conditions are likely with an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS on 24 Mar. ####018002221#### FXXX10 KWNP 221231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 00-03UT 3.67 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 1.67 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 3.33 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 1.00 4.00 15-18UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 1.67 1.33 4.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 24 Mar primarily due to the evolution and flare potential exhibited by AR 3615.