####018002224#### FXXX10 KWNP 140031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2025 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 2.33 3.33 06-09UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.67 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 3.00 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 16 Oct due to the combined effects of multiple CMEs from 11-13 Oct. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Oct. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 13 2025 0919 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A high chance for a few R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 16 Oct primarily due to the flare potential presented by AR4246. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 140031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 13 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4246 N22W30 290 250 12 EKC 27 BGD 4247 S12W64 324 10 2 BXO 5 B 4248 N07E01 259 290 11 EKO 14 BGD 4250 N07E06 254 20 4 CRO 3 B 4251 N19E26 234 10 1 HRX 1 A 4252 S13E51 209 90 3 HSX 1 A 4253 S17W24 284 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018003933#### FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. Region 4246 (N22W30, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) underwent significant evolution, growing in overall size while gaining multiple new spots. Subsequently, AR4246 was the main provider for activity which included an M1.9 flare at 13/0526 UTC, an M2.7 flare at 13/0919 UTC and a M1.2 flare at 13/1318 UTC. Coronal mass ejections were associated the M1.9 and M1.2 events with the latter being accompanied by a type II radio sweep from USAF observatories with an estimated speed of 570 km/s. Modeling efforts of these events suggest arrival at Earth by mid to late on 17 Oct. However, forecaster confidence is relatively low in this outcome. The current train of thought is an earlier arrival considering previous CMEs from this region are forecast to arrive late on 15 Oct and into 16 Oct. This would suggest a likely earlier arrival for the 13 Oct events than what current model output predicts. Additional modeling efforts are underway as of the time of this writing to perhaps confirm those suspicions. Other notable activity included slight decay in the intermediate portion of Region 4248 (N07E01, Eko/beta-gamma-delta) as it grew in length. Regions 4247 (S12W64, Bxo/beta) and 4250 (N07E06, Cro/beta) were in decay as well. The remaining regions were unremarkable in comparison. No new regions were assigned numbers this period. .Forecast... A high chance for a few R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 16 Oct primarily due to the flare potential presented by AR4246. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4,080 pfu observed at 13/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during this period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels on 14 Oct before returning to normal do moderate levels on 15-16 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field decreased slightly from 6-7 nT to 4-5 nT. The Bz component was +/- 6 nT at times, but was mostly near neutral or northward for the majority of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged just below 700 km/s and phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels, although gradually waning, over the course of 14 Oct due to persistent effects from the negative polarity CH HSS. Additional enhancements are anticipated to begin by late on 15 due to CME arrivals from 11-12 Oct originating from AR4246. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early on 13 Oct, but was primarily unsettled to active thereafter. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field will likely continue to reach active levels, with a chance for an early G1 (Minor) storm period, on 14 Oct. Activity is then expected to trend towards predominantly quiet to unsettled levels until late on 15 Oct when active conditions are likely once again as CMEs from 11-12 Oct begin to impact the near-Earth environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is then likely on 16 Oct in response to CME effects.