####018002129#### FXXX10 KWNP 150031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 15-Jan 17 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 15-Jan 17 2026 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 00-03UT 2.33 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.00 1.33 4.00 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 5.33 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 3.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 3.00 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 4.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 17 Jan due to the anticipated arrival of coronal hole high speed stream and a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of it. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2026 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 14 2026 2033 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2026 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 R1-R2 25% 30% 30% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 15-17 Jan. ####018002509#### FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 at 14/2033 UTC from new Region 4341 (S10E70, Dkc/beta-gamma); spot classification of this region is complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects. New Region 4342 (N17E76, Cao/beta) rotated around the NE limb and was also numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (25-30%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 15-17 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,398 pfu at 14/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed an increase after 14/2210 UTC (well below S1-Minor threshold) likely due to contamination from electron flux. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels on 15-16 Jan. A brief return to moderate levels on 17 Jan is likely with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s. Total magnetic field ranged from 2-9 nT while the Bz (north-south) component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish over 15-16 Jan. Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on 17 Jan when a recurrent, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on recurrent data. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 15 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 16 Jan as negative polarity HSS activity diminishes. By early on 17 Jan, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective, causing unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate). ####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 150031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jan 14 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4336 S09W52 167 150 13 CSO 9 B 4340 N14E05 110 50 6 CAO 6 B 4341 S10E70 45 350 9 DKC 12 BG 4342 N17E76 39 50 7 CAO 3 B