####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 060031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 05 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3661 N23W15 21 40 1 HSX 1 A 3662 N29W59 65 30 2 HSX 1 A 3663 N26W31 37 580 16 FKC 27 BGD 3664 S19E14 352 580 11 EKC 20 BD 3665 S05E30 336 10 1 AXX 1 A 3666 N07W13 19 120 8 CSO 4 B 3667 N27E59 307 130 3 HSX 1 A 3668 S17E29 337 40 4 CAO 6 B 3669 S08E43 323 10 1 HRX 1 A ####018002218#### FXXX10 KWNP 060031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 1.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.67 2.67 1.00 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 06 May due to persistent CME activity. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 S1 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 05 2024 0601 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 R1-R2 90% 90% 90% R3 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk. ####018003286#### FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached very high levels with two X-class flares and nine M-class flares observed throughout the period. This period also saw a marked increase of the background X-ray flux and the overall intensity and frequency of flare activity. Region 3663 (N26W31, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.3/1b flare at 05/0601 UTC and an X1.2/1b flare at 05/1154 UTC, along with two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region 3663 continued a trend of growth with consolidation of mixed polarity spots noted in the intermediate spot area. Region 3664 (S19E14, Ekc/beta-delta) increased in areal extent and total spot count, and produced three R1 (Minor) events. Minor growth was observed in new Region 3668 (S17E29, Cao/beta) while new Region 3669 (S08E43, Hrx/alpha) was stable. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Coronagraph imagery from SOHO/LASCO has been restored following an outage that began around 03/2327 UTC. All CME events which occurred during the outage have been analyzed and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach high levels over 06-08 May, with M-class flares expected and a high chance for X-class flares, due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 06-08 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 06-08 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed until around 05/1500 UTC, when a mild enhancement, likely associated with the arrival of the 03 May CME, commenced. Total field strength increased to 14 nT late in the day and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -12 nT, after 05/1830 UTC. Solar wind speeds fluctuated between 300-390 km/s and the phi angle was variable. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 06-08 May. A stronger disturbance is expected on 06 May due to the passage of the 03 May CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with the arrival of a CME beginning at around 05/1500 UTC. .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to CME activity and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May with waning CH HSS influences.