####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 250031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 24 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3614 N17W21 222 150 5 DSO 3 B 3615 S13W14 215 810 16 FKC 54 BGD 3617 S13E17 184 60 3 CAO 5 B 3618 S18W0* 305 120 6 CAO 4 B 3619 N19E16 185 100 2 CSO 3 B 3620 S10E46 155 30 2 HAX 2 A 3621 N17W52 253 20 3 CSO 3 B 3622 N19E61 139 60 3 DAO 5 B ####018002148#### FXXX10 KWNP 250031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale G4). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 25-Mar 27 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 25-Mar 27 2024 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 00-03UT 6.00 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 1.67 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 1.33 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 4.00 1.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 1.33 12-15UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 21-00UT 4.00 3.33 1.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater (G3 Strong) geomagnetic storms are expected in response to CME passage. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2024 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 S1 or greater 99% 70% 50% Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected as the space radiation event from March 23 continues to decay. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 24 2024 0218 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2024 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for an R3 (Strong) event from significant sunspot regions. ####018003370#### FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. The strongest event of the period was an M2.7 flare (R1/Minor) at 24/0218 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W14, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). The region remained the most complex on the disk and was responsible for numerous low-level M-class X-ray events over the past 24 hours. Despite its favorable location, no Earth-directed CMEs were associated with any of the flares. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 25-27 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked with 956 pfu (S2/Moderate) at 23/1820 UTC. It persisted mostly below the S2 threshold after 24/1910 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue trend downward but be above the 10 pfu (S1) threshold on 25 Mar. If the trend continues at its gradual pace, the event will likely continue into 26-27 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 25-27 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS to the onset of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 23 Mar. Elevated solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s were observed until 24/1411 UTC when an interplanetary shock marked the arrival of the CME. Solar wind speeds abruptly increased to ~800 km/s and remained between ~750-850 km/s through the end of the period. Total magnetic field strength increased from lows of 5 nT to a peak of 32 nT at 24/1605 UTC. The sheath of the CME transitioned to the driver at 24/1822 UTC. The Bz component reached the further southward with -27 nT at 24/1510 UTC. At the time of this writing, the Bz component of the driver has been entirely oriented northward. .Forecast... Enhancements from the passing CME are likely to continue over 25 Mar. A decreasing trend towards background conditions are likely over 26 Mar and ambient solar wind conditions are likely on 27 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels early on 24 Mar due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. G2 conditions were again reached with a sudden impulse (MEA: 377 nT at 24/1437 UTC) as the CME reached Earth. Conditions peaked with G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm conditions observed by 24/1628 UTC. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at G3 (Strong) or greater levels on 24 Mar under persisting CME influence. As CME influence wanes, G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 26 Mar and a return to mostly quiet conditions is likely for 27 Mar.