####018000762#### AXXX82 KWNP 210031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Feb 20 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4374 N09W77 65 150 3 HSX 1 A 4375 N17W48 36 10 1 AXX 1 A 4377 N07W16 4 10 4 BXO 2 B ####018002690#### FXXX12 KWNP 210031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4374 (N09W77, Hsx/alpha) continued its approach of the western limb while remaining little changed. Region 4375 (N17W48, Axx/alpha) underwent decay while Region 4376 (N13, L=015) decayed to plage. Region 4377 (N07W16, Bxo/beta) exhibted signs of decay as well and produced a C2.8 flare at 20/0307 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with isolated to occasional C-class flares through 23 Feb. Probabilities increase slightly on 23 Feb due to the anticipated return of old active regions to the eastern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak level of 7,442 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 23 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to predominantly reflect positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field increased to as high as 15 nT near the end of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~450-500 km/s. Phi remained predominantly positive. .Forecast... A positive polarity CH HSS regime is expected to continue to deminish over the course of 21 Feb with a return to an ambient-like state anticipated for 22 Feb. Enhanced conditions are then expected to return on 23 Feb with a recurrent, negative polarity high speed stream. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 Feb as positive polarity CH HSS conditions wane to background levels. Quiet levels are then anticipated for 22 Feb. Unsettled to active conditions, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are expected on 23 Feb due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects. ####018002126#### FXXX10 KWNP 210031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.00 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 2.33 09-12UT 3.67 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 15-18UT 1.67 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 0.67 1.33 3.67 21-00UT 0.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 R1-R2 10% 10% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 21-23 Feb.