####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 270031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 26 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3614 N18W48 223 80 3 HSX 1 A 3615 S13W41 216 1140 17 FKC 53 BGD 3617 S14W10 185 50 5 HSX 1 A 3619 N19W10 185 140 8 CSO 7 B 3620 S08E19 156 20 1 HRX 1 A 3621 N15W80 255 30 4 CSO 3 B 3622 N19E32 143 10 4 BXO 2 B 3623 S19W47 222 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018002170#### FXXX12 KWNP 270031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W41, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) began to exhibit decay and separation in between its intermediate and trailing spots. AR 3615 continued to be responsible for the majority of the flare activity producing several M-class flares including an M1.9 flare at 26/1330 UTC, which was the largest of the period. The remaining active regions were stable and relatively quiet in comparison. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 27-29 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, but below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 29 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 27 Mar, with a chance to reach high levels beginning on 28 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 4-7 nT and the Bz component was at benign values. Solar wind speeds averaged 600 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return on 27-29 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27-29 Mar. ####018002206#### FXXX10 KWNP 270031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 27-Mar 29 2024 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar 29 00-03UT 2.33 1.67 2.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.33 1.67 2.33 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 21-00UT 2.33 1.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar 29 S1 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next three days due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 26 2024 1330 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2024 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar 29 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) are expected over the next three days due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615.