####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 280031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 27 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3614 N16W62 224 90 3 HSX 1 A 3615 S13W55 217 960 16 FKC 41 BGD 3617 S14W24 186 30 1 HSX 1 A 3619 N18W24 186 140 8 DSO 6 B 3620 S09E05 157 20 1 HRX 2 A 3621 N15W94 256 30 4 CSO 3 B ####018002238#### FXXX10 KWNP 280031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 00-03UT 1.67 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 1.67 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.33 2.33 2.33 12-15UT 1.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 2.33 1.00 18-21UT 1.33 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 S1 or greater 30% 30% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next three days due to the flare potential for Region 3615. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 27 2024 0641 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 R1-R2 75% 75% 40% R3 or greater 25% 25% 10% Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days. ####018002186#### FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W55, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for two M1.1 flares and numerous C-class flares. This AR continued to be the largest, most complex region on the visible disk. Region 3617 (S14W18, Hsx/alpha) exhibited signs of decay, and Region 3623 (S19W55, L=223) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 28-30 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 30 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 28 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 4-5 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds averaged 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive . .Forecast... Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return 28 Mar. Slighted elevated parameters are possible on 29-30 Mar with CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 28 Mar with a return of isolated unsettled periods by late on 29-30 Mar under negative polarity CH HSS effects.