####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 040031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Mar 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Mar 03 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4378 N15W02 205 250 13 CHO 6 B 4381 N08E30 173 220 14 EAO 9 B 4383 N15W41 244 10 1 AXX 1 A 4384 N10E53 150 300 14 EHO 8 B ####018002015#### FXXX10 KWNP 040031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Mar 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 4.33 03-06UT 3.67 2.33 4.33 06-09UT 2.67 1.00 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.33 12-15UT 0.67 1.00 3.00 15-18UT 0.67 2.33 2.67 18-21UT 1.67 2.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 3.33 4.33 Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 04 Mar due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 06 Mar. ####018003304#### FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with isolated C-class flaring. Regions 4381 (N0830, Eao/beta) and 4384 (N10E53, Eho/beta) remained the primary drivers of activity. The largest event of the period was a C2.9 flare from Region 4381 at 03/0030 UTC. Region 4384 continues to rotate further onto the disk, but foreshortening still hinders a definitive characterization of its magnetic complexity. Region 4378 (N15W07, Cho/beta) showed some new flux emergence but remained mostly inactive. Region 4383 (N15W41, Axx/alpha) simplified into a unipolar group following the loss of its trailing spots, while Region 4380 (S21E05) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 06 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 7,430 pfu observed at 03/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 06 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased to ~450 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) intensified, maintaining an average of ~10 nT. The North-South (Bz) component exhibited several southward deflections, including two sustained southward orientations late in the period where it reached a maximum deviation of -10 nT. The Phi angle remained predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation, except for those two periods of sustained -Bz. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 04 Mar due to the ongoing influence of the positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Residual enhancements are likely to persist on 05 Mar, keeping conditions slightly above background levels, before another enhancement is expected on 06 Mar with the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until the very end of the reporting period, when G1 (Minor) storming conditions were reached. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 Mar under +CH HSS influences, with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming levels. Mostly unsettled levels are likely on 05 Mar as the current streams influence wanes. A return to active and G1 (Minor) storming levels is likely on 06 Mar due to the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS.