####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 200031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 19 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4246 N25W0* 288 300 8 DKI 5 B 4248 N06W81 262 380 10 DKO 5 B 4252 S13W28 209 150 7 CSO 5 B 4254 N10E06 175 90 2 HSX 1 A 4256 S15E26 155 100 6 CAO 4 B 4257 S10E48 133 210 7 CAO 4 B 4258 S14W55 236 10 1 AXX 1 A 4259 S20E49 132 10 3 BXO 2 B 4260 S10E61 120 10 1 HSX 1 A ####018002175#### FXXX10 KWNP 200031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 20-Oct 22 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 20-Oct 22 2025 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 00-03UT 3.33 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.67 2.67 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 15-18UT 2.33 1.67 0.67 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2025 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 19 2025 2015 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2025 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 R1-R2 25% 20% 20% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 22 Oct. ####018002463#### FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4246 (N25, L=288) produced most of the periods flare activity from beyond the west limb, including an M1.0 flare (R1-Minor) at 19/0156 UTC and an M1.8 flare at 19/2015 UTC. Minor decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 4252 (S13W28, Cso/beta) and 4256 (S15E26, Cao/beta), while the remaining regions were stable. New Regions 4259 (S20E49, Bxo/beta) and 4260 (S10E61, Hsx/alpha) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a decreasing chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 20-22 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high levels on 20-22 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 21 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced throughout the period due to a combination of CME influences followed by the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences early in the period. Total magnetic field strength reached 12 nT, while the Bz component was sustained southward by as much as -8 nT late in the period. Solar wind speeds ranged between about 455-575 km/s. The phi angle was variable throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to prevail through 22 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the period in response to CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Periods of active conditions are likely over 19-20 Oct, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely to prevail on 21-22 Oct as CH HSS influences wanes.