####018002396#### FXXX10 KWNP 290031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar 31 00-03UT 2.33 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.00 3.00 3.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 1.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.00 3.00 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar 31 S1 or greater 30% 10% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 29 Mar due to the flare potential for Region 3615. Probabilities decrease for 30 and 31 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 2056 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar 31 R1-R2 75% 75% 5% R3 or greater 25% 25% 1% Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease for 31 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. ####018003091#### FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3615 (S13W69, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest events of the period, an X1.1/3b flare (R3 - Strong) at 28/2101 UTC and two impulsive M-class flares; an M7.1/1n flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/0629 UTC and an M6.1 flare (R2) at 28/1556 UTC. The region continued to develop and added area to its trailer spots while maintaining multiple deltas in the intermediate and trailer portion of the group. The remaining numbered regions were mostly stable or in decay. GOES-16 SUVI 304 angstroms imagery suggests that a C8.4 flare at 28/0943 UTC from Region 3615 did result in ejecta. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery contained a faint and narrow ejecta that is not suspected to be Earth-directed. With the X1.1 event at 28/2101 UTC, SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated slow-moving ejecta off the SW limb, first visible at 28/2124 UTC. Analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 29-30 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615. As Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb, R1 (Minor) or greater events are no longer likely. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 30 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. As AR 3615 rotates off of the visible disk after 30 Mar, S1 or greater radiation storms will no longer be likely. There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 30 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ended the period near ~400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated by late 29 Mar under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences, which may continue through 30 Mar. A possible weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Mar is possible over 31 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels, with potential isolated periods of unsettled conditions, over the next three days. ####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 290031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 28 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3614 N18W75 223 60 2 HSX 1 A 3615 S13W69 217 990 17 FKC 40 BGD 3617 S14W38 186 30 1 CSO 3 B 3619 N19W39 187 60 6 HAX 5 A 3620 S08W10 158 10 1 AXX 2 A 3621 N15W0* 256 30 4 CSO 3 B