####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 300031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 29 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3614 N17W88 223 50 2 HSX 1 A 3615 S13W81 216 960 19 FKC 34 BGD 3617 S13W51 186 30 5 CSO 2 B 3619 N17W52 187 50 3 HSX 2 A ####018002329#### FXXX12 KWNP 300031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W81, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M3.2/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 29/0230 UTC. The region exhibited minor growth in its trailer spot as it rotated towards the limb. The remaining numbered active regions were mostly quiet an stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 30 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615. On 31 Mar, there is a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares as Region 3615 rotates further beyond the W limb. No R1 or greater events are likely 01 Apr. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 31 Mar primarily due to the flare potential and location of Region 3615. There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on 30-31 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 400 km/s to near 340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT. Phi angle was variable. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated on 30 Mar under weak, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Another weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Mar is possible on 31 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels, with potential isolated periods of unsettled conditions, over the next three days. ####018002315#### FXXX10 KWNP 300031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 00-03UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 1.00 3.00 2.33 15-18UT 1.00 3.00 2.33 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 30-31 Mar due to the flare potential for Region 3615. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 29 2024 0230 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 R1-R2 75% 75% 5% R3 or greater 25% 25% 1% Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease for 01 Apr as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.