####018002182#### FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1.2 flare at 29/0934 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W87, FKC/beta-gamma-delta). Moderate decay was observed in the leading and trailing spots of Region 3615 as it transited the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 30 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615. On 31 Mar, there is a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares as Region 3615 rotates further beyond the W limb. No R1 or greater events are likely 01 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 31 Mar primarily due to the flare potential and location of Region 3615. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 01 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 330-350 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-2 nT. Phi angle was positive. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated on 30 Mar-01 Apr under weak, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Another weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Mar is possible on 31 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next three days. ####018002311#### FXXX10 KWNP 301231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 00-03UT 0.67 2.00 2.67 03-06UT 1.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 1.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 1.67 3.00 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 S1 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 30-31 Mar due to the flare potential for Region 3615. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 29 2024 1934 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2024 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 R1-R2 75% 45% 5% R3 or greater 25% 10% 1% Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 30 Mar. Probabilities decrease for 31 Mar-01 Apr as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.