####018003387#### FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares. Region 4345 (S17W28, Eai/beta-delta) continued to show development, as well as region Region 4342 (N14W32, Dai/beta-delta). Region 4348 (S18W59, Bxo/beta) developed new life with a resurgence of flux emergence in its intermediary region, while Region 4352 (S02W05, L=14) fully decayed to plage this reporting period. A new region rapidly developed in the NE and was numbered: Region 4353 (N17E10, Cri/gamma). A filament just NE of disk center erupted around 22/0130 UTC. An associated narrow CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 22/0236 UTC. Analysis indicates no Earth-directed component, with the CME passing ahead and above Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely (60%) to be at moderate (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) levels, with a slight chance (15%) for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 22-24 Jan, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4341, 4342, and 4345. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, fluctuating around the 1,000 pfu threshold for the majority of the reporting period; the maximum reached was 3,460 pfu at 22/1050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux largely dropped below the S1 threshold at 21/1815 UTC, but has also been fluctuating around the threshold throughout the reporting period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance of crossing the S1 (Minor) threshold on 22 Jan, and a slight chance for another crossing on 23-24 Jan as the near-Earth particle environment continues to relax towards background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a high-speed stream paradigm, with the interplanetary magnetic field returned to levels that are largely consistent with recurrence. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) averaged 8 nT, while the Bz (north-south) component ranged from -5 nT to 8 nT throughout the reporting period. Solar wind speeds were somewhat variable but continued to gradually decrease, starting the reporting period at ~675 km/s and ending at ~550 km/s. Phi angle remained in the positive solar sector (away from the Sun), until 22/0800 UTC when it flipped negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near Earth are expected to be dominated by the (slowly waning) +CH HSS conditions 22-24 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels, indicating the geomagnetic field has largely recovered from the CME impact on 19 Jan, returning to a +CH HSS response. .Forecast... The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storming (G1) levels on 22 Jan, quiet to active levels on 23 Jan and quiet to unsettled levels on day 24 Jan, as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS begins to wane. ####018002187#### FXXX10 KWNP 221231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 00-03UT 4.33 3.33 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 09-12UT 2.33 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 2.67 3.33 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 22 Jan due to lingering traces of the 19 Jan CME interacting with continuing CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 S1 or greater 45% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 22 Jan due to elevated flux levels still recovering from the 19 Jan S4 event, dropping to a slight chance on 23-24 Jan. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 22-24 Jan.