####018002180#### FXXX10 KWNP 280031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 28-Oct 30 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 28-Oct 30 2025 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct 30 00-03UT 4.00 4.33 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 4.00 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 4.33 4.00 09-12UT 4.33 3.67 3.67 12-15UT 4.33 3.00 3.67 15-18UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 18-21UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels, are likely on 28-30 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a positive polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 28-Oct 30 2025 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct 30 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 28-Oct 30 2025 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct 30 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002340#### FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. There have been two C-class flares both occurring from Region 4262 (S13W61, Cso/beta). Newly numbered Region 4270 (S07W02, Bxo/beta) emerged around 27/0900 UTC but has been quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low over 28-30 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to rise over the coming days as Earth becomes geoeffective with the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Particles will remain moderate to high, likely surpassing the 1,000 pfu threshold during the diurnal maxima. With simple regions in the western hemisphere, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters showed the expected arrival of a CME that left the Sun 23 Oct. Parameters became perturbed around 27/1300 UT as density started to increase ahead of CME arrival. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased to 10 nT with the Bz dropping to -6.6 nT. Wind speeds remained between 350-380 km/s. Rotation into the positive sector can be seen in phi angle starting around the time of arrival. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 30 Oct as Earth become geoeffective with the large, positive polarity CH HSS. This is likely to cause significant increases in both Bt and solar wind speeds. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels, are likely on 28-30 Oct due to the anticipated onset of a CH HSS. ####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 280031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 27 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4254 N11W0* 177 30 1 HSX 1 A 4257 S09W60 136 60 1 HSX 1 A 4261 S06W28 104 40 1 HSX 1 A 4262 S13W61 137 80 3 CSO 5 B 4266 N16W11 87 10 5 BXO 7 B 4267 N02E16 60 110 2 HSX 1 A 4269 S11E14 62 30 4 CRO 6 B 4270 S07W02 77 10 4 BXO 5 B