####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 010031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 31 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3615 S13W0* 217 850 21 FKC 15 BGD 3617 S13W76 185 10 1 AXX 1 A 3619 N18W79 188 50 2 HSX 1 A 3624 N16E39 70 10 4 HRX 1 A 3625 N12W65 173 40 5 DAI 7 B ####018002125#### FXXX10 KWNP 010031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 01-Apr 03 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 01-Apr 03 2024 Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 00-03UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 03-06UT 3.00 3.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.33 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 1.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 2.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 2.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2024 Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2024 Apr 01 Apr 02 Apr 03 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected on 01-03 April. ####018002438#### FXXX12 KWNP 010031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered Region 3625 (N12W65, Dai/beta) was the most complex region on the disk was absent of significant X-ray activity. The low-level C-class activity that was observed over the last 24 hours primarily originated from around both the west and east limbs. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels over 01-03 Apr, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor/Moderate) flares due to potential of far side regions near the limb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain near background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 03 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested the transition from a CIR into a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength decreased from 12 nT to ~7 nT early in the period. Bz was briefly oriented as far south as -10 nT between 31/0000-0300 UTC but was primarily northward for the rest of the reporting period. Solar wind speeds were observed around 500 km/s for the first half of the day and declined to near 450 km/s over the latter half. Phi angle was in the positive sector. .Forecast... Solar wind enhancements from a positive polarity CH HSS are likely to continue over 02 Apr. A transition to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated on 03 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to CH HSS activity. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, over 01-02 Apr. The anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS on 03 Apr will likely cause the geomagnetic field to reach active levels.