####018002827#### FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was a C6.3 flare at 26/1909 UTC from beyond the east limb. There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4378 (N24E56, Cso/beta) remained the largest on the disk, yet was stable and inactive. Regions 4379 (S20E57, Bxo/beta) and 4380 (S23E68, Dso/beta-gamma) were still foreshortened, hampering efforts to conduct a thorough analysis. Region 4380 was the most active region, producing the majority of the low level C-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 01 Mar, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the day, with a peak of 6,908 pfu at 26/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate to high levels through 01 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 01 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected persistent, yet weakening influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from over 550 km/s to begin the period to end the period around 450 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component was varable between +/- 4 nT, and the Phi angle remained predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced, yet weakening, through the remainder of 27 Feb due to waning coronal hole influences. New enhancements are likely late on 28 Feb into early 01 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of the 25 Feb CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach unsettled levels on 27 Feb as -CH HSS influence wanes. Active periods are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 28 Feb - 01 Mar, due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb. ####018002131#### FXXX10 KWNP 271231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Mar 01 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2026 Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 00-03UT 3.00 3.00 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 2.67 4.33 06-09UT 2.33 1.67 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 3.00 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 1.00 2.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 3.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.33 3.00 Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 28 Feb - 01 Mar, due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2026 Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2026 Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 01 Mar.