####018002104#### FXXX10 KWNP 021231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 02-Apr 04 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 02-Apr 04 2024 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr 04 00-03UT 1.67 3.00 4.00 03-06UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 06-09UT 1.67 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.33 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.67 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 2.33 2.67 18-21UT 2.00 2.67 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 4.00 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 04 Apr under negative polarity CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 02-Apr 04 2024 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 02-Apr 04 2024 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr 04 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002071#### FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low to low levels. X-ray flux background decreased to B-class levels as Region 3625 (N10W84, Dao/beta) transits beyond the NW limb. New Region 3627 (N09E66, Hrx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 04 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 04 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field was predominantly 4-7 nT and the Bz component ranged +7/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 550 km/s to near 410 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Weakening positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to continue through 02 Apr. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to begin on 03 Apr and continue through 04 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 Apr under weakening positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 03 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS effects begin. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 04 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS effects persist.