####018002092####
FXXX12 KWNP 022021

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2024 Apr 02 2020 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. X-ray flux background

decreased to B-class levels as Region 3625 (N10W84, Dao/beta) transits

beyond the NW limb. New Region 3627 (N09E66, Hrx/alpha) was numbered. No

Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels through 05 Apr with a

slight chance for M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts).



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background

levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at

normal to moderate levels through 05 Apr.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters reflected sustained positive polarity CH HSS

influences. Total field averaged between 2 and 6 nT, and the Bz

component was +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between ~410-465 km/s

and phi was predominantly positive with brief excursions into a negative

solar sector.



.Forecast...

A transition to negative polarity CH HSS influences is expected to begin

by late 03 Apr causing an enhanced and disturbed solar wind environment.

Enhancements will likely continue through 05 Apr.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.



.Forecast...

Quiet to active conditions are expected over the course of 03 Apr under

negative polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm

levels are likely by mid to late 04 Apr continuing into the early parts

of 05 Apr.