####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 030031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 02 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3619 N18W0* 189 30 2 HSX 1 A 3625 N10W93 175 70 8 DAO 2 B 3626 N13W48 130 1 3 BXO 2 B 3627 N09E58 24 5 1 AXX 1 A ####018002092#### FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low to low levels. X-ray flux background decreased to B-class levels as Region 3625 (N10W84, Dao/beta) transits beyond the NW limb. New Region 3627 (N09E66, Hrx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels through 05 Apr with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 05 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected sustained positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field averaged between 2 and 6 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between ~410-465 km/s and phi was predominantly positive with brief excursions into a negative solar sector. .Forecast... A transition to negative polarity CH HSS influences is expected to begin by late 03 Apr causing an enhanced and disturbed solar wind environment. Enhancements will likely continue through 05 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions are expected over the course of 03 Apr under negative polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely by mid to late 04 Apr continuing into the early parts of 05 Apr. ####018002059#### FXXX10 KWNP 030031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2024 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05 00-03UT 1.00 4.00 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 1.67 3.67 3.67 06-09UT 2.00 2.67 3.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.33 3.00 12-15UT 1.67 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.67 2.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04-05 Apr due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2024 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2024 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 03-05 Apr.