####018003208#### FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 4482 (S09E15, Eko/beta-gamma) was the source of an M1.1/Sf flare at 09/0227 UTC. Frequent low-level B- and C-class flaring also occurred from Region 4485 (S10W41, Dai/beta-delta), including a C2.7/Sf flare at 09/0713 UTC. Region 4482 no longer has a delta configuration but retains its mixed polarity and showed a minor decline in penumbral extent within its trailing spots. Region 4485 continues to grow with new flux emergence and has developed a small delta spot. Region 4487 (N09E13, Cro/beta) showed small new emergence and consolidation, growing some rudimentary penumbra. The remaining regions are stable and unremarkable. EUV waves observed in SUVI imagery hinted at an eruption associated with the C2.7 flare from Region 4485. The eruption was first visible in STEREO COR2 imagery beginning at 09/0753 UTC and GOES CCOR1 imagery at 09/0845 UTC. LASCO imagery was unavailable at the time of writing. Analysis of this event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 12 July, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong and greater) events due to the complexity and development of regions 4482 and 4485. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 772 pfu observed at 09/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to high levels over 10-12 July under high-speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 12 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from 350 to 550 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 2 and 13 nT, while the Bz component was highly variable with deflections between +/- 09 nT. The phi angle was shifted from predominantly positive to negative after 09/1017 UTC. .Forecast... Further enhancements are anticipated 10-11 July with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels with enhanced conditions. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are anticipated to reach mostly unsettled and active levels 10-11 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming. ####018002212#### FXXX10 KWNP 100031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jul 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 09 2026 0227 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 10-12 Jul. ####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 100031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jul 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jul 09 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4481 N14W20 331 10 1 AXX 1 A 4482 S09E15 297 410 12 EKO 9 BG 4485 S10W41 353 155 8 DAI 12 BG 4486 S18W71 22 10 6 BXO 2 B 4487 N09E13 299 15 4 CRO 3 B