####018002988#### FXXX12 KWNP 310031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. X-rays rose to the C1 levels after 30/1200 UTC following a small filament eruption near the Suns W limb. Another filament channel eruption was observed from the NE quadrant beginning after 30/0600 UTC. A subsequent, slow-moving CME was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery soon after. Modelling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced. More eruptive activity along filament channels was observed in the NW quadrant in the latter half of the UT day. At this time, more coronagraph imagery is needed to analyze and model any related ejecta associated with the activity. Other activity included a partial halo CME off the NE limb beginning at 30/0424 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. A Type II radio sweep was associated with the event. The source of the ejecta could be seen behind the NE limb in SUVI 171 imagery beginning at 30/0357 UTC. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class flares through 01 Nov. C-class flares become likely, with a slight chance for M-class flares on 02 Nov due to the anticipated return of active regions to the eastern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels levels on 31 Oct - 02 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 02 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions continued to reflect positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased to a peak near ~650 km/s. Total field ranged mostly ranged from 10-15 nT while the Bz component was between +11/-12 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect positive CH/HSS influences through 01 Nov. Weak enhancements from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 29 Oct is possible on 02 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to persistent CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) periods, over 31 Oct under positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels are likely on 01 Nov as coronal hole influence wanes. The potential for unsettled conditions exists on 02 Nov due to potential weak influence form a CME that left the Sun on 29 Oct. ####018002092#### FXXX10 KWNP 310031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2025 Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 3.33 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.33 1.33 21-00UT 3.33 2.00 3.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor) levels are expected on 31 Oct due to persistent CH HSS effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2025 Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2025 Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 5% 5% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 02 Nov due to the flare potential of returning regions. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 310031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 30 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4257 S09W0* 138 30 2 HSX 1 A 4261 S05W68 104 20 1 HSX 1 A 4262 S14W0* 137 90 3 CSO 3 B 4266 N17W51 87 40 7 CAO 8 B 4267 N03W25 61 110 7 CSO 6 B 4269 S11W28 64 20 2 HRX 2 A 4271 S09E54 342 10 1 AXX 1 A