####018000878####
AXXX82 KWNP 040031

DAYOBS



:Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt

:Issued: 2024 Apr 04 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#             Summary of Space Weather Observations

#

:Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 03

# Region   Location         Sunspot Characteristics

#           Helio                      Spot  Spot  Mag.

# Num   Lat.,CMD  Long.  Area  Extent  class count class

 3624    N15W04     73      5     1     AXX    1      A

 3625    N10W0*    176     70     8     DAO    2      B

 3626    N13W62    131      1     3     BXO    2      B

 3627    N10E44     25      5     1     AXX    1      A

 3628    N07E67      2     90     2     HSX    1      A

####018002061####
FXXX10 KWNP 040031

DAYTDF



:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2024 Apr 04 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             3-Day Forecast

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA

Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale

G1).



NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2024



             Apr 04       Apr 05       Apr 06

00-03UT       1.33         4.67 (G1)    3.00     

03-06UT       1.67         3.67         2.00     

06-09UT       2.00         3.00         2.00     

09-12UT       2.00         3.00         1.67     

12-15UT       2.33         2.33         1.67     

15-18UT       2.67         2.33         1.67     

18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         2.67     

21-00UT       4.00         3.33         2.00     



Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04-05 Apr due to

CH HSS influences.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was

below S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2024



              Apr 04  Apr 05  Apr 06

S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%



Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm

production is forecast.



C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.



Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2024



              Apr 04        Apr 05        Apr 06

R1-R2           10%           10%           10%

R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%



Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio

blackouts all three days.

####018002116####
FXXX12 KWNP 040031

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2024 Apr 04 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was very low. New Regions 3628 (N08E74, Hsx/alpha)

rotated onto the ENE limb, were numbered, but were otherwise

unremarkable. New spots were also observed near N23E63. However, these

remain unnumbered at this time as they appear to be in decay. No

Earth-directed CMEs were observed.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to reach low levels through 05 Apr with a

slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts).



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background

levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at

normal to moderate levels through 05 Apr.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters reflected weakening positive polarity CH HSS

influences. Total field ranged 3-7 nT, the Bz component was +/- 5 nT and

solar wind speeds decreased from ~460 km/s to just below 400 km/s by the

end of period. Phi was predominantly oriented in a positive solar

sector.



.Forecast...

Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to begin by late 04 Apr

and continue through 05 Apr. Disturbances will likely begin to wane by

06 Apr.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.



.Forecast...

Primarily unsettled to active conditions, with isolated G1 (Minor)

geomagnetic storming periods, are likely on 04-05 Apr under negative

polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to

prevail by 06 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS effects begin to wane.