####018002086#### FXXX10 KWNP 271231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2026 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 00-03UT 2.00 4.00 3.33 03-06UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.67 3.33 3.00 09-12UT 2.00 3.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 3.67 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 4.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 28 Jan due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2026 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2026 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flares will persist through 29 Jan. ####018002426#### FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. C-class flaring was observed from Regions 4342 (N16, L=042), 4351 (S05W54, Dai/beta), and 4355 (S13E12, Cro/beta). The largest flare was a C8.8 at 26/1339 UTC from Region 4355. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4351 and 4357 (S13E02, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) through 29 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,393 pfu observed at 26/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels on 27 Jan before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 28-29 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 29 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening, positive polarity, CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 550 km/s to near 420 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-8 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to gradually diminish over the first half of 27 Jan. The latter half of 27 Jan should bring negative polarity CH HSS influences and enhancements into the solar wind environment, which will then continue through 28-29 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected through early on 27 Jan becoming unsettled by late on 27 Jan due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are likely on 28 Jan with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 29 Jan.