####018000762#### AXXX82 KWNP 010031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 31 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4261 S06W81 104 10 1 AXX 1 A 4267 N02W39 62 110 3 CSO 2 B 4269 S13W41 64 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018003962#### FXXX12 KWNP 010031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with four C-class flares (C1.7 at 31/0201 UTC, C1.0 at 31/0838 UTC, C3.6 at 31/1653 and C7.1 at 31/2042) and a slow enhancement of the X-ray background level (from B3.9 to above C-level). All the flares were associated to solar activity from behind the East limb (probably associated with the returning active regions 4246 and 4248) and the latest event (the C7.1) was also associated with a Type-II radio burst observed at 31/2013 UTC). Three Regions remained at the solar visible disk after others decay to plage. The current numbered regions presented a simple magnetic configuration after a period of stability or slight decay: Region 4261 (S06W81, Axx/alpha), Region 4267 (N02W39, Cso/beta) and Region 4269 (S13W41, Axx/alpha). Multiple CMEs were observed at coronagraph imagery during the day, but they were mostly far-sided. The modeled propagation for the CME erupted around 30/0645 UTC from a region near N21E32 suggested a partial impact on Earths magnetosphere peaking on 02 Nov. The propagation of a second CME (erupted around 31/0123 UTC from a region near NE limb) was analyzed during the period, but the model results showed no associated impact on Earths environment. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low with an increasing chance for M-class flares between 01-03 Nov. A slight chance for X-class flares is forecast on 02-03 Nov, all due to the anticipated return of active regions to the eastern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels around 31/1200 UTC, peaking at 31/1850 UTC, with maximum flux of 4,770 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels, with a slight enhancement associated to a far-sided CME erupted from the NE limb around 31/1430 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels with a chance for high levels through 02 Nov due to ongoing HSS influence and an anticipated arrival of a subtle disturbance near Earth on 03 Nov, associated to a CME that erupted on 29 Oct. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 03 Nov due to returning active regions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions continued to reflect the influence of the positive polarity CH/HSS, with Phi angle predominantly positive. Solar wind speed rose up to 750 km/s near 31/0155 UTC and slowly decreased to about 550-600 km/s by the end of the period. Total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continued to slowly decrease, reaching 5 nT values by the end of the period. The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly negative during the period, reaching as far south as -9 nT around 31/0130 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to continue to be under the influence of positive CH/HSS through 03 Nov. Weak enhancements from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 29 Oct is possible on 02 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was mostly unsettled to active during the period, with an isolated G1 (Minor) storming levels observed during the 0300-0600 UTC synoptic period. Those conditions are due to the persistent influence of positive CH HSS. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled levels through 03 Nov as HSS activity persists and the anticipated impact of the CME that left the Sun on 29 Oct is expected to be minor. ####018002192#### FXXX10 KWNP 010031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 01-Nov 03 2025 Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 00-03UT 4.00 3.33 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 4.00 3.67 06-09UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 12-15UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.67 2.00 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 3.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025 Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 S1 or greater 1% 5% 10% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025 Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 R1-R2 25% 35% 45% R3 or greater 5% 10% 10% Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts all three days. A slight chance exists for R3 (Major) or greater blackouts on 02-03 Nov.