####018002158#### FXXX10 KWNP 020031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 02-Nov 04 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 02-Nov 04 2025 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 2.33 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 4.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2025 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2025 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 R1-R2 25% 35% 45% R3 or greater 5% 10% 10% Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 02-04 Nov. ####018002658#### FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. New flux emergence around Region 4267 (N01W52, Cso/Beta) was observed, along with a C4.7 flare at 01/1655 UTC. New Region 4272 (N22E76, Hax/Alpha) was numbered. The remainder of the previously numbered regions (4266 and 4269-71) had decayed to plage. .Forecast... Region 4272 is the first in what GONG far side imagery suggests is a series of regions rotating onto the visible disk. Consequently, solar activity is expected to begin increasing over the next few days. Initially low activity is expected with an increasing chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Nov and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) with the return of old Regions 4246 (N24, L=290) and 4248 (N07, L=262). Last rotation, Region 4246 produced 90 C-class flares and 27 M-class flares. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 10600 pfu The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels as HSS influence wanes, unless transient influences nudge them back to normal levels. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels with the returning active regions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from about 650 km/s to 500 km/s. Bt was fairly steady at 6-7 nT while Bz ranged between +4/-6 nT. Phi angle was generally positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to reflect the influence of a waning CH/HSS, with a return to background conditions towards the 03-04. Weak enhancements from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Oct are possible on 02 Nov, but confidence is low. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to slowly diminishing CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through 03 Nov as HSS activity persists combined with a possible glancing blow from the 30 Oct CME. ####018000704#### AXXX82 KWNP 020031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Nov 01 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4267 N02W52 62 100 2 CSO 3 B 4272 N22E76 293 50 3 HAX 1 A