####018002088#### FXXX10 KWNP 051231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 05-Apr 07 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 05-Apr 07 2024 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07 00-03UT 2.33 3.00 1.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.67 1.67 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 05 Apr due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2024 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2024 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002324#### FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels due to a C3.8 flare from a region beyond the ESE limb. Region 3629 (N07W21, Cao/beta) exhibited signs of evolution, developing rudimentary penumbra in its leading spot, but remained quiet. Two new Regions were numbered this period; Regions 3630 (S11W17, Bxo/beta) and 3631 (N11W01, Axx/alpha). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels through 07 Apr with a chance for C-class flares. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 07 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a transition to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field briefly increased to approximately 8-10 nT before weakening somewhat, and the Bz component underwent a few southward deflections of -6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ambient-like levels to ~540 km/s by midday. Phi was predominantly negative around throughout the period. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS influences are anticipated to persist through 05 Feb while beginning to wane by late 06 Feb. A return to an ambient-like state is anticipated for 07 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are likely on 05 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods, are expected 06 Apr as CH HSS effect continue, but begin to wane. Primarily quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 07 Apr.