####018002319#### FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Weak C-class flares were observed from departed Region 4342 (N16, L=042) and Region 4355 (S13W07, Cro/beta). The majority of the Regions were either stable or in decay. New Regions 4359 (N18E27, Bxo/beta), 4360 (S15E67, Cro/beta) and 4361 (N19W29, Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk and were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 - Minor-Moderate) through 29 Jan. A slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 - Minor-Moderate) exists on 30-31 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,382 pfu observed at 28/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on 29-31 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 31 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Solar wind speed began to increase after 28/0700 UTC from about 450 km/s to around 700 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-13 nT while the Bz component varied between +9 nt to -13 nT. The Phi angle was in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected through 29-31 Jan under negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the final UT day synoptic period (21-24). .Forecast... Unsettled to G1 storm levels are expected on 29 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 30 Jan followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Jan as HSS influence persists. ####018001168#### AXXX82 KWNP 290031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jan 28 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4347 N11W86 16 50 3 HSX 2 A 4349 S14W46 336 120 3 HSX 1 A 4351 S04W74 4 60 6 DAO 7 B 4353 N17W71 359 30 6 CRO 7 B 4355 S13W07 297 10 1 AXX 1 A 4357 S13W20 310 30 6 CRO 7 B 4358 N14E50 240 10 3 BXO 3 B 4359 N18E27 263 10 3 BXO 2 B 4360 S15E57 233 30 3 CRO 3 B 4361 N19W29 319 10 3 BXO 2 B ####018002062#### FXXX10 KWNP 290031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan 31 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 4.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 29 Jan due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan 31 S1 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan 31 R1-R2 25% 10% 10% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: A decreaseing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists for the next three days.