####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 050031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Mar 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Mar 04 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4378 N16W15 204 230 12 CSO 12 B 4381 N08E16 173 170 14 CAO 8 B 4384 N09E40 150 290 13 EHO 6 B 4385 S08E31 159 10 3 BXO 5 B ####018002006#### FXXX10 KWNP 050031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Mar 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 05-Mar 07 2026 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 00-03UT 2.33 3.33 3.67 03-06UT 2.33 3.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.00 3.00 2.00 09-12UT 1.33 2.67 1.67 12-15UT 1.00 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 4.00 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 21-00UT 3.33 4.33 3.33 Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 06 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 07 Mar. ####018003240#### FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels, with a marked decrease in flaring compared to the previous period. Flaring was limited to isolated C- and B-class flares. The C-class flares were produced by Region 4384 (N09E40, Eho/beta) and the plage of decayed Region 4380 (S21, L=205). X-ray background flux subsided below the C-level. Region 4378 (N16W15, Cso/beta) gained a companion pore just south of its leader spot. The trailing spots of Region 4381 (N08E16, Cao/beta) decayed throughout the period, including loss of penumbra. Region 4384 remains the largest group on the disk, but exhibited further simplification as its intermediate spots dissipated and its primary trailing spot decreased in size. A new region 4385 (S08E31, Bxo/beta) emerged in the southeast as a stable but unremarkable collection of small pores. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 07 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak of 541 pfu observed at 04/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is to remain at moderate levels 05-06 Mar before reaching high levels on 07 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 07 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weak enhancements, potentially associated with glancing influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed was slightly elevated and ranged from 400 to 470 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) trended slightly downward throughout the period, averaging 6 nT. The North-South (Bz) component exhibited several southward deviations with a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT early in the reporting period. The Phi angle was primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to return to a more nominal, ambient regime on 05 Mar. A more significant enhancement is expected 06-07 Mar with the anticipated onset of a stronger negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 05 Mar as lingering enhancements subside. G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 06 Mar due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS), with active conditions expected 07 Mar as high-speed stream influences continue.