####018003672#### FXXX12 KWNP 031231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels following a pair of M-class events from recently numbered Region 4274 (N24E70, Cao/beta-gamma). The first was an M1.6 (R1-Minor) flare that peaked at 03/0925 UTC, and the second was a long-duration M5.0 (R2-Moderate) flare, the largest of the period, at 03/1011 UTC. Associated with the M5 flare was a Castelli-U radio burst as well as coronal dimming visible in nearly all SUVI wavelengths. Analysis of any associated CME(s) will be accomplish as imagery becomes available. Region 4267 (N01W72, Hsx/alpha) produced a long duration C8.2 flare at 02/1246 UTC, while Region 4272 (N23E55, Cso/beta) added a couple of low level C-class flares during the period. Despite its rapid development, Region 4273 (S12E18, Dso/beta) remained mostly inactive. Aside from the potential CME associated the M1 and M5 flares, no other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance for M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate) through 04 Nov as Region 4274 makes its way further onto the visible disk. By 05 Nov, M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 12,610 pfu at 02/1650UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels as HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with enhancements possible through 05 Nov as Region 4274 transits the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field averaged between 4-6 nT the first half of the period, before increasing to average near 9 nT after around 03/0200 UTC. The Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT through 03/0200 UTC when it remained mostly southward near -7 nT thereafter. Solar wind speeds ranged from 450-620 km/s before decreasing to near 430 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was in a predominantly positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced as CH HSS influences persist yet slowly diminish. Barring the possible arrival of any Earth-directed CMEs from 03 Oct, a return to ambient-like conditions on 05 Nov is expected. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods during the 02/1500-1800 UTC, 03/0600-0900 UTC, and 03/0900-1200 UTC synoptic periods, likely attributed to slowly diminishing CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods are expected through 03/1500 UTC as CH HSS effects persist. Geomagnetic field activity is then expected to range from unsettled to active levels for the remainder of 03 Nov as CH HSS influences diminish. Primarily quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 04 Nov as HSS influences draw to a close, with quiet conditions prevailing on 05 Nov. ####018002325#### FXXX10 KWNP 031231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 4.33 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 1.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.67 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods are expected through 03/1500 UTC as CH HSS effects persist. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 03 2025 1011 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 R1-R2 35% 50% 55% R3 or greater 5% 10% 15% Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 04 Nov as Region 4274 makes its way further onto the visible disk. By 05 Nov, R1-2 (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) are likely, with a slight chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) event.