####018002633#### FXXX12 KWNP 041231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels as Region 4274 (N24E60, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced three M-class flares. The largest was an M3.5 at 04/0148 UTC. Moderate growth was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 4274. A large delta magnetic configuration runs through the spot group. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4273 (S12E06, Dsi/beta-gamma) and 4275 (N07E68, Dao/beta). The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period. .Forecast... Due to the complexity of Region 4274 and its current activity, flare probabilities have increased to 60% for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and 10% for X-class (Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 4,940 pfu observed at 03/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on 04-06 Nov. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 04-06 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced, but in decline. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 480 km/s to near 420 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-7 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will continue to reflect waning conditions of the CH HSS over the coming days. The next HSS associated with the CH currently near the central meridian is expected to become geoeffective 06-07 Nov. Also, the 03 Nov CMEs associated with the M-class flares from Region 4274 is expected to arrive late 06 into 07 Nov. The combination of the two will provide for enhanced solar wind parameters. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field will diminish to quiet to unsettled levels 04-05 Nov. The field will become enhanced late 06 Nov due to CME/HSS arrival. A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming Watch has been issued for 06 Nov. ####018002193#### FXXX10 KWNP 041231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 04 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 00-03UT 3.00 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.00 1.33 3.00 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 3.00 09-12UT 3.00 1.33 3.00 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 3.33 21-00UT 2.67 1.67 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 06 Nov due to CME/HSS arrival. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 04-06 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 04 2025 0148 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: Due to the complexity of Region 4274 and its current activity, flare probabilities have increased to 60% for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and 10% for X-class (Strong) on 04-06 Nov.