####018002574#### FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. Region 3632 (N28E11, Cao/beta) produced a C1.1/Sf flare at 07/1926 UTC and a C1.2 flare at 08/0417 UTC. New Region 3634 (N27E54, Bxo/beta) produced a C1.4 flare at 08/0314 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 3628 (N08E07, Cho/beta) continued to support large, symmetric penumbra, but remained quiet. Region 3633 (S07E51, Dso/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of evolution, developing a weak gamma signature as polarities began to mix in its intermediate area. The remaining active regions were unremarkable in comparison. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 08-10 Apr with a slight chance for M-class flares returning on 09-10 Apr. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 10 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a slightly disturbed solar wind environment. Total field was at 4-5 nT through 08/0125 UTC when an increase to about 7 nT was observed. The Bz component of the IMF was relatively benign with readings mostly +/- 4 nT with some readings to -7 nT after 08/0125 UTC. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~425 km/s to about 375 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at slightly disturbed levels for the remainder of 08 April. Onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected by 09 Apr, and continuing into 10 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, are expected on 08 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09-10 Apr due to mostly weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. ####018002151#### FXXX10 KWNP 081231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 08-Apr 10 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 08-Apr 10 2024 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 3.67 06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 1.00 2.33 2.00 15-18UT 0.67 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 0.67 2.67 3.00 21-00UT 1.33 3.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 08-Apr 10 2024 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 08-Apr 10 2024 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 R1-R2 5% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.