####018001790#### FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Only minor changes were observed among the five spotted active regions on the Suns visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 09 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 07-09 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 09 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment suggested the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached 12 nT, and the Bz component was observed as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~350 km/s to ~450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 09 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 07-09 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. ####018002053#### FXXX10 KWNP 071231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Mar 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 07-Mar 09 2026 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 00-03UT 4.33 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 3.00 2.67 3.67 09-12UT 2.33 2.67 2.67 12-15UT 3.33 1.67 1.67 15-18UT 3.00 1.67 1.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.67 21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2026 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 07-09 Mar.