####018002251#### FXXX10 KWNP 060031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 4.00 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 7.33 (G3) 3.67 12-15UT 4.33 6.33 (G2) 3.33 15-18UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 3.67 Rationale: G3 (Strong) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 06-07 Nov due to multiple enhancements expected from a CH HSS and anticipated CME arrivals. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 06-08 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: Probabilities have increased to 70% for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and 25% for R3 (Strong) due to the continued activity and complex structure of Region 4274. ####018005193#### FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 4274 (N24E40, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. A 45 minute Ten-flare radio burst was observed reaching a peak flux of 760 sfu. A full halo CME was observed and modeled. The Earth-directed component is expected to arrive late 06, early 07 Nov. The region also managed an M8.6 at 05/2207 UTC that had a Type II radio sweep with a reported velocity from the Palahua, Hawaii of 1,395 km/s. Considerable dimming around the region occurred indicating a CME lift off. Model analysis will commence when enough imagery becomes available. Region 4274 continues to exhibit flux emergence within its intermediate region - increasing its spot count, length, and area. Sheering across its center retains its complex magnetic field and its resulting high flare count. Region 4275 (N06E47, Dai/beta-gamma) has produced a few C-class flares and continues to come into better view off of the limb. Its leader appears to be stabilizing and becoming more symmetric. The X1.1 flare at 04/2201 UTC originated from a region whose location is just beyond the east limb at S15. Satellite imagery as of 05/2100 UTC shows a not-so complex region in that vicinity...it could be the leader that has decayed or the region responsible is still out of view. Will hold off on numbering the region until a better view is obtainable. .Forecast... Solar activity will remain at high levels as the regions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a 70% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 25% for R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Waning influences from the southern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) have allowed the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit to slowly trend back towards moderate levels. The GOES-19 satellite still crossed the 1,000 pfu threshold surrounding the diurnal maxima reaching a peak of 2,290 pfu and dropped below threshold around 05/1800 UTC. Enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV electron flux following the X1.8 at 04/1734 UTC continues, but remains well below the S1 (Minor) radiation storming levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 08 Nov due to the likely arrival of multiple CMEs. With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 and beyond the east limb - further enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible. Will maintain a 25% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels 06 Nov with decreasing chances (down to 10%) for 07-08 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were disturbed due to a persistent period of southward Bz influenced by a slow moving CME. Total field strength (Bt) was at 5-7 nT up until CME arrival at roughly 05/1700 UTC. Bt increased to 14 nT with the north-south (Bz) component dropping to -14 nT as of 05/2130 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased slightly from 350 km/s to ~400 km/s. The phi angle remained in the positive (away from the Sun) sector for most of the period with recent oscillations into the negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will remain enhanced due to the current CMEs, an incoming CIR with a HSS behind it, and two more CMEs on the way. The most significant disturbance is expected to be associated with the full halo M7.4. Calculated velocities between 1,100 to 1,400 km/s should put the CME arrival time right around the turn of the UTC day on 07 Nov. A sharp rise in density and IMF coupled with rapid rise in solar wind speeds is expected. For a visual representation of this interaction, please see the most recent WSA-Enlil model prediction at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field started at active levels due to the prolonged period of southward Bz. The field dropped to quiet levels before rising with CME arrival to G1 (Minor) and peaking at G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels. .Forecast... The field is expected to remain enhanced 06-08 Nov due to the aforementioned solar wind disturbances described in the Solar Wind section. The CME influences the field is experiencing now, coupled with an incoming CIR/HSS, and the arrival of a full halo CME is expected to produce G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels. Watches have been issued for these times with moderate to high confidence in timing, and moderate confidence in magnitude. Depending on the model output from the most recent CME associated with the M8.6, Watches may be upgraded further. -Bri ####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 060031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Nov 05 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4267 N01W0* 63 40 1 HSX 1 A 4272 N22E23 294 60 2 HSX 2 A 4273 S12W15 332 50 7 DSO 6 B 4274 N24E40 277 420 11 EKC 20 BGD 4275 N06E47 270 200 6 DAI 8 BG