####018002199#### FXXX10 KWNP 091231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 00-03UT 0.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 R1-R2 10% 10% 40% R3 or greater 1% 1% 10% Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days. Primarily due to the anticipated return of old Region 3615. ####018002271#### FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. An unnumbered region beyond the NE limb produced a C1.0 flare at 09/0353 UTC. Region 3628 (N08W07, Cho/beta) continued to support large, stable, symmetric penumbra and began to show signs of evolving magnetic complexity. Region 3633 (S07E37, Dso/beta-gamma) exhibited sustained mixed polarity in its intermediate area, but remained relatively quiet. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels through 10 Apr. Activity will likely increase on 11 Apr with the anticipated return of old AR 3615, bringing a chance for M-class flare activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 10 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Total field strength increased to 9 nT late in the period, the Bz component was variable at +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 375 km/s. Phi was positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to undergo enhancements over the course of 09-10 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, which will begin to wane on 11 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09-10 Apr due to mostly weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 11 Apr as CH HSS effects begin to wane.