####018004517#### FXXX12 KWNP 061416 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1415 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels due to an M8.6/2b flare at 05/2207 UTC from Region 4274 (N24E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the flare were an 180 sfu Ten-flare, type II radio sweep (1,395 km/s), and an asymmetric halo CME with the majority of the ejecta off the NNE limb as observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/0224 UTC. Preliminary analysis showed an arrival early to midday on 08 Nov. Region 4274 continued to be in a growth phase with the large intermediate spots beginning to shear away from the trailing spots. Movement along the magnetic deltas within the group will likely result in further significant flaring. A new region rotated around the SE limb and was numbered as 4276 (S17E74, Dai/beta). Although the group is too close to the limb for accurate spot analysis, it was responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04/2201 UTC and managed to produce an M1.1 flare at 06/0431 UTC recently. .Forecast... Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the regions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a 80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35% for R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,290 pfu observed at 05/1655 UTC. Enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV electron flux following the X1.8 at 04/1734 UTC continues, but remains well below the S1 (Minor) radiation storming levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 08 Nov due to the likely arrival of multiple CMEs. With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 - further enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible. Will maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 05/1745 UTC, likely from the arrival of the partial halo CME first observed at 03/0936 UTC associated with the M5.0 flare at 03/1011 UTC from Region 4274. Total field gradually increased to a maximum of 24 nT at 06/0715 UTC while the Bz component was mostly southward between 05/1506-06/0520 UTC reaching a maximum of -17 nT. Solar wind speed showed an increase from approximately 350 km/s to near 400 km/s after 05/1600 UTC followed by another increase to 550 km/s around 06/0730 UTC. Phi angle was mostly positive until 06/0708 UTC when it became variable. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will remain enhanced due to persistent transient activity along with an incoming CIR preceding a HSS, and three more CMEs on the way. The most significant disturbance is expected to be the full halo CME associated with the M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. Calculated velocities between 1,100 to 1,400 km/s should put the CME arrival time right around the turn of the UTC day on 07 Nov. A sharp rise in density and IMF coupled with rapid rise in solar wind speeds is expected. For a visual representation of this interaction, please see the most recent WSA-Enlil model prediction at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field increased to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels after 05/2010 UTC. G3 (Strong) levels occurred at 06/0527 UTC due to CME effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain enhanced 06-08 Nov due to the aforementioned solar wind disturbances described in the Solar Wind section. The CME influencing the field is currently, coupled with an incoming CIR/HSS, and the arrival of a full halo CME is expected to produce G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels on 06-07 Nov with G1 (Minor) levels on 08 Nov. Watches have been issued for these times with moderate to high confidence in timing, and moderate confidence in magnitude. Depending on the model output from the most recent CME associated with the M8.6, Watches may be upgraded further.