####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 070031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Nov 06 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4272 N22E10 294 60 2 HSX 2 A 4273 S12W28 332 30 6 CSO 3 B 4274 N24E26 278 670 12 EKC 34 BGD 4275 N06E34 270 180 7 CAO 7 B 4276 S17E67 237 40 8 DAI 8 BG ####018002252#### FXXX10 KWNP 070031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 7.33 (G3) 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 6.33 (G2) 3.33 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.00 18-21UT 3.67 5.67 (G2) 3.33 21-00UT 3.33 4.33 3.33 Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Nov, and G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 08 Nov, due to the effects of a coronal hole combined with multiple CMEs. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 07-09 Nov due primarily to the eruptive potential of Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 06 2025 0431 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 35% 35% 35% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4274. ####018004043#### FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.1 from Region 4276 (S17E67). The region is coming into better view as it moves away from the limb but its magnetic field is still distorted due to foreshortening. Region 4274 (N24E26, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remains the most complex region on the visible disk and has been relatively quiet throughout the period with only C-class flares observed. Two regions have come into sight near S06 and N12, they have yet to be numbered. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the regions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is an 80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35% for R3 (Strong) levels through 09 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Due to the arrival of strong winds within the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) - associated with the negative polarity CH in the north - the greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geostationary orbit has been suppressed to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influx of electrons within the HSS will continue through 09 Nov. However, strong wind speeds will suppress the Van Allen belts low enough so as to not bring the flux above threshold at geosynchronous. Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there remains a slight risk (10% chance) of an S1 (Minor) radiation storming event. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters started off disturbed following the likely arrival of combined mag cloud formed by the quick succession CMEs associated with the M1.6 on 03/0925 UTC and M5.0 03/1011 UTC. Shortly after, the co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the CH HSS arrived maintaining an enhanced solar wind environment. The total field (Bt) reached 24.5 nT with the north-south (Bz) component dropping -17 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field settled between 06/12-18 UTC and has begun its oscillation between +/-5 nT - which is typical within a HSS. Solar winds climbed from a starting of 400 km/s at the start of the UTC day towards 700 km/s near the end. A sector boundary crossing occurred around 06/0900 UTC moving from the positive (away from the Sun) sector into the negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed with further enhancements 07 Nov due to the arrival of a full halo CME associated with the M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. A second CME associated with the M8.6 05/2207 UTC is expected to arrive late 08 Nov. Solar wind parameters - IMF, density, and wind speeds will rise with CME arrival. For a visual representation of these interactions, please see the most recent WSA-Enlil model prediction at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels from the combination of multiple space weather phenomena (CME, CIR, HSS) arriving in succession. The field has remained in unsettled to active conditions as the HSS persists. .Forecast... The anticipated arrival of the full halo CME as discussed in the Solar Wind section is expected to bring the field back up to G3 (Strong) storming levels on 07 Nov. With the arrival of the second CME late on 08 Nov, G2 conditions are likely. The field is likely remain in unsettled to active conditions as CME influences wane and the HSS remains geoeffective into 09 Nov. -Bri