####018002187#### FXXX10 KWNP 101231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 10-Apr 12 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 10-Apr 12 2024 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 1.67 2.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 10-Apr 12 2024 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 10-Apr 12 2024 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 R1-R2 10% 25% 25% R3 or greater 1% 5% 5% Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days, primarily due to the return of old Region 3615. ####018002481#### FXXX12 KWNP 101231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels with C-class activity from Region 3634 (N27E33, Axx/alpha) and an unnumbered region near N19E56. Regions 3628 (N08W21, Cho/beta) and 3633 (S07E23, Dso/beta-gamma) remained the largest and most magnetically complex regions on the visible disk, but were relatively stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels through 10 Apr. Activity will likely increase on 11-12 Apr with the anticipated return of old AR 3615, bringing a chance for M-class flare activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 11 Apr with a chance for high levels to be reached on 12 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected likely CIR and then weak, positive polarity CH HSS onset. Total field values increased to a peak of 9 nT early in the UTC day before relaxing somewhat to 7 nT. During the time of enhancement, the Bz component deflected southward reaching -8 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 425 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are anticipated to continue through 10 Apr due to ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences. Enhancements are likely to begin to wane over the course of 11 Apr with an ambient-like environment returning on 12 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10 Apr due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 11 Apr as CH HSS effects begin to wane with mostly quiet levels prevailing on 12 Apr.