####018002348#### FXXX10 KWNP 071231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 4.33 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.00 18-21UT 4.00 5.67 (G2) 3.33 21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.33 3.33 Rationale: G3 (Strong) storming levels remain possible on 07 Nov as influence from the likely arrival of the 05 Nov full halo CME combine with the CH HSS. G2 conditions are likely with the arrival of the second CME late on 08 Nov. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there remains a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 07 2025 0716 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 30% 35% 35% Rationale: Solar activity is expected to remain at R1/R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events, on 07-09 Nov as the regions in the eastern hemisphere remain active and magnetically complex. ####018003840#### FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity again reached moderate levels due to an M1.7/1N flare at 07/0716 UTC from Region 4274 (N24E22, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Accompanying the flare were Type II (est 1169 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a very faint, asymmetric halo CME first noted in LASCO C2 imagery at ~07/0724 UTC. This region remains the most complex region on the visible disk and was responsible for the majority of the flare activity during the period. This included a C8.7/Sf flare at 07/0919 UTC, as well as multiple low- to mid-level C-class flares. Other notable flare producing regions were Regions 4272 (N22E05, Hsx/alpha) and 4276 (S17E59, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 4276 produced a C9.3 flare at 06/2002 UTC, the second largest flare of the period, while Region 4272 added a C5.7/Sf flare at 06/1825 UTC. Analysis is underway to determine if the CME associated with the M1.7 flare has an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels (R1/R2 - Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 07-09 Nov as the regions in the eastern hemisphere remain active and magnetically complex. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07-08 Nov, likely reaching high levels on 09 Nov following an increase in solar winds associated with the CME/CH HSS. Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there remains a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely combined arrival of the 03 Nov CMEs and the co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the negative polarity CH HSS. A subsequent enhancement around 07/0445 UTC was likely the arrival of an additional CME, further enhancing the solar wind environment. The total field averaged near 10 nT, but increased late in the period, reaching a peak near 17 nT. Bz fluctuated between +/-10 nT through 07/0445 UTC when it observed southward deviations to -16 nT. Solar winds began the period around 540 km/s before subsequent enhancements pushed them to reach over 850 km/s by ~07/1030 UTC. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 07 Nov due to the likely arrival of the first 05 Nov full halo CME combined with CH HSS influence. A second CME from 05 Nov is expected to arrive on 08 Nov, further enhancing solar wind parameters. By late on 09 Nov, conditions are likely to begin tapering off, barring any additional CME activity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before increasing steadily throughout the period, reaching G1 (Minor) storm levels from the combined effects of the aforementioned CME, CIR, and CH HSS. .Forecast... G3 (Strong) storming levels remain possible on 07 Nov as influence from the likely arrival of the 05 Nov full halo CME combine with the CH HSS. G2 conditions are likely with the arrival of the second CME late on 08 Nov. Barring any additional CME activity, unsettled to active conditions are likely to prevail on 09 Nov.