####018002961#### FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Low-level C-class flares were observed from Regions 4381 (N09W50, Eso/beta) and 4387 (N09E53, Dro/beta), with the largest event being a C7.8 at 09/2038 UTC from Region 4387. Region 4381 simplified with some dissipation of its intermediate spots, while Region 4384 (N09W27, Cso/beta) showed a decline in its trailing spot. Region 4385 (S09, L=161) has decayed to plage. Region 4387 remained relatively stable throughout the period. Region 4388 (S16W20, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and showed some evolution with new flux emergence and reconfiguration of the group, though its overall extent remained largely unchanged. Near the northeast limb, new activity is rotating into view behind Region 4387. Due to its proximity to the limb and associated foreshortening, it is difficult to determine if this represents one or two distinct sunspot groups, and a definitive characterization of its extent and magnetic complexity is pending further rotation onto the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 12 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,320 pfu observed at 09/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 12 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning, negative-polarity, CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 525 km/s to near 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 10 Mar as HSS conditions continue to wane, alongside possible transient influences from the 06 Mar CME. A return to nominal levels is expected on 11-12 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 Mar as HSS conditions continue to diminish with enhancements possible due to the anticipated arrival of the 06 Mar CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 11-12 Mar. ####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 100031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Mar 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Mar 09 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4378 N17W85 208 120 2 HSX 1 A 4381 N09W50 174 120 15 ESO 4 B 4384 N09W27 150 210 9 CSO 2 B 4387 N09E53 71 30 8 DRO 7 B 4388 S15W18 142 20 3 CRI 8 B ####018002126#### FXXX10 KWNP 100031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Mar 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 10-Mar 12 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 10-Mar 12 2026 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.00 1.33 1.67 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.33 21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 10-Mar 12 2026 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 10-Mar 12 2026 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 10-12 Mar.