####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 220031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Dec 21 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4311 N03W54 125 20 5 CRO 5 B 4312 N18E20 51 40 2 HSX 1 A 4315 N19E35 36 10 3 BXO 2 B 4316 S08E26 45 50 7 DRI 12 B 4317 N11E64 11 120 6 CAO 15 B ####018002586#### FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.3 at 21/1827 from Region 4316 (S08E26, Dri/beta), which has been exhibiting rapid flux emergence on the western edge of its leading spot. Region 4317 (N11E64, Cao/beta) produced most of the C-flare activity observed this period, and continued to exhibit growth though confidence in its classification is low due to foreshortening effects. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance (20%) for M-class flares through 23 Dec, with 24 Dec increasing to a chance (30%). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 Dec, with a possible threshold crossing on 24 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment became enhanced this period with the onset of CIR effects beginning at around 21/0000 UTC. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 15 nT, with the Bz component showing an almost periodic oscillation between +/- 10 nT for several hours before decreasing to roughly +/- 3 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of around 450 km/s to a peak near 700 km/s. Phi was mostly positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Dec due to CIR effects followed by positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels this period in response to CIR effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active levels 22-24 Dec, due to persistent CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, on 22-23 Dec. ####018002106#### FXXX10 KWNP 220031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67 09-12UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.67 3.33 15-18UT 3.67 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 22-23 Dec due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2025 1827 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 R1-R2 25% 25% 30% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts through 24 Dec.