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FXXX12 KWNP 110046

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2026 Mar 11 0045 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. C-class flare activity occurred from

Regions 4381 (N09W69, Cso/beta), 4387 (N09E40, Cro/beta), and 4389

(N13E60, Ero/beta). The largest was a C4.6 at 10/1845 UTC from

Region 4381. Regions 4384 (N09W44, Hsx/beta) and 4381 continued to

slowly decay. Slight growth was observed in Region 4388 (S15W33,

Cri/beta). The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable. No

Earth-directed CMEs were observed.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for

M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 14 Mar.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak

flux of 1,730 pfu observed at 10/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV

proton flux was at background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on

10-12 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue

at background levels through 14 Mar.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced, possibly due to transient

influence. Total field increased after 10/1030 UTC to near 9 nT while

the Bz ranged from +6/-8 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 389-500 km/s.

Phi angle was mostly negative.



.Forecast...

Slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are likely to continue through

11 Mar. Nominal levels are expected to return on 12 Mar before

enhancements are again expected 13-14 Mar due to the onset of

a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.



.Forecast...

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 11

Mar as slightly enhanced solar wind conditions persist. Mostly quiet

conditions are expected on 12 Mar. Active levels are expected 13-14 Mar

with possible isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming due to the onset

of positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.