####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 090031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Nov 08 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4272 N22W16 294 40 2 HSX 1 A 4274 N24E02 276 850 12 EKC 20 BGD 4275 N07E06 272 150 7 CSO 6 B 4276 S17E39 239 180 10 DAO 8 BG 4277 S06E38 240 120 8 DAI 10 B 4278 N11E31 247 10 2 BXO 2 B ####018002556#### FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4274 (N24E02, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest and most active region, and was responsible for most of the C-flare activity this period. Regions 4276 (S17E39, Dao/beta-gamma) and 4277 (S06E38, Dai/beta) both exhibited slight growth during the period, and each produced a few C-flares. The remainder of the spot groups were relatively unchanged and inactive. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong), on 09-11 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09-11 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected remnant CME effects and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength gradually decreased from 11 nT to 5 nT. Bz was sustained southward, by as much as -9 nT, between 08/0000-0830 UTC. Solar wind speeds ranged between 575-700 km/s. Phi was predominately negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 11 Nov with negative polarity CH HSS influences (09-11 Nov) and the anticipated arrival of a CME from 07 Nov (10-11 Nov). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels due to CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 09 Nov in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 10 Nov due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 07 Nov. Isolated active periods are likely on 11 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences and any remnant CME effects wane. ####018002148#### FXXX10 KWNP 090031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.33 03-06UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 3.00 5.67 (G2) 3.33 09-12UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.33 12-15UT 2.00 4.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 3.67 2.00 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.67 3.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over 09-11 Nov due to coronal hole and transient influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 09-11 Nov due primarily to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 09-11 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274.