####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 230031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Dec 22 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4312 N18E05 53 40 2 HSX 1 A 4316 S08E10 48 130 8 DAI 12 BG 4317 N11E51 8 240 11 EAI 10 B 4318 N05E54 4 60 6 DAO 6 B 4319 S08E66 351 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018002076#### FXXX10 KWNP 230031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 23-Dec 25 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 23-Dec 25 2025 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25 00-03UT 4.33 3.67 3.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 3.33 3.00 1.67 18-21UT 3.67 3.67 1.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 23 Dec due to persistent CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2025 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2025 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25 R1-R2 30% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts through 25 Dec. ####018002960#### FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C8.6/1n at 22/2231 UTC from Region 4317 (N11E51, Eai/beta). Additionally, a C2.8 flare at 22/0914 UTC occurred, associated with a filament eruption in the vicinity of Region 4316 (S08E10, Dai/beta-gamma). Modeling of the ejecta from the event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced. Region 4316 continued to increase in magnetic complexity with a gamma configuration observed as it developed. Some minor growth was also observed in Region 4317 and 4318 (N05E54, Dao/beta). Region 4319 (S08E66, Axx/alpha) was numbered but remained simple and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with an increasing chance for M-class flares over 23-25 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,882 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 23-25 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a strong, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength decreased from ~10 nT during the CIR to ~6-7 nT as the high speed stream set in. Solar wind speeds increased from ~700 km/s to a peak of ~800 km/s by midday. Speeds gradually decreased to ~725 km/s near the end of the UT day. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector positive sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 23-25 Dec as influence from the positive polarity coronal hole persists. Additional enhancements are possible on 24 Dec due to a CME that is expected to pass close to Earth which left the Sun on 20 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to effects from the positive polarity coronal hole. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Dec due to persistent influence from the positive polarity coronal hole. Periods of active conditions are likely on 24-25 Dec under waning coronal hole effects, and possible influences on 24 Dec from a CME (which left the Sun on 20 Dec) that is expected to pass in close proximity to Earth.