####018002142#### FXXX10 KWNP 050031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 05-Feb 07 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 05-Feb 07 2026 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67 03-06UT 4.33 4.33 2.33 06-09UT 3.33 3.67 2.33 09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 12-15UT 1.67 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 3.00 4.00 2.67 18-21UT 4.33 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun on Feb 01. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 05-Feb 07 2026 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 S1 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 05-07 Feb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 04 2026 1213 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 05-Feb 07 2026 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 40% 40% 40% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 05-07 Feb, with a high chance for R3 (Strong) or greater levels to occur. ####018004733#### FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels and dominated by Region 4366 (N14W07, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) with negligible contributions from the remaining disk. The most notable event during the period was an impulsive X4.2 flare from Region 4366 at 04/1213 UTC. Throughout the period, Region 4366 continued to exhibit a slight reduction in area and a modest simplification of its magnetic complexity. Region 4369 (S04E30, Cso/beta), previously an Hsx, developed trailing spots while Regions 4370 (S19E39, Axx/alpha) and 4372 (S24W54, Axx/alpha) decayed in extent and complexity and became unipolar spot groups. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk remained stable or in a state of slight decay. Three eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period. First was a CME off the SE first observed in C2 imagery at 04/1224 UTC and was likely associated with flaring at 04/1050 UTC near Regions 4370 and 4371 (S23E47, Dao/beta). This event was followed by post-eruptive arcades at approximately 04/1210 UTC, which further confirmed the source region despite flare activity being partially obscured by Region 4366. Modeling indicates no Earth-directed component. The second was a narrow eruption to the NNW first seen in C2 imagery at 04/1326 UTC; while potentially associated with the aforementioned X4.2 event, it dissipated quickly and its analysis is low confidence. Lastly, there was another narrow eruption noted off the NE, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1426 UTC. This event was likely a sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting at approximately 04/1350 UTC near N15W22 between Regions 4366 and 4367 (N09E25, Cao/beta). There is a slight potential of minor glancing blows from these eruptions early on 08 Feb. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity is expected (80%) due to M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for 05-07 Feb, with a high chance (40%) for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further activity from AR 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak of 10,400 pfu at 04/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 07 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance (30%) to exceed S1 (Minor) levels over 05-07 Feb due to the high eruptive potential of Region 4366. The risk of a proton event will increase as the region moves into a more favorable magnetic connection point in the Suns western hemisphere. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters initially reflected quiet, background conditions through the first half of the reporting period; however, an interplanetary shock was observed at 04/1421 UTC. This disturbance is believed to be the arrival of the complex CME ejecta associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366. Total magnetic field (Bt) jumped abruptly from nominal levels of 5–9 nT to a peak of approximately 24 nT at 04/1440 UTC, with the Bz (north-south) component exhibiting large fluctuations with sustained southward deflections reaching a minimum of -17 nT at 04/1516 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from an average 315 km/s to nearly 450 km/s, while density spiked from about 2 cm^-3 to over 11 cm^-3. Temperature also increased, rising from about 35,000 K to exceeding 250,000 K. The Phi angle remained almost entirely in the positive (Away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period. .Forecast... The solar wind is expected to remain moderately disrupted through 06 Feb due to the continued passage of the X8.1 CME, potentially interacting with a negative polarity CH HSS, with conditions slightly relaxing on 97 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet for the majority of the reporting period, before reaching active levels with the arrival of the interplanetary shock. .Forecast... Isolated G1 (Minor) storming conditions are anticipated through 06 Feb due to the interaction of the CME passage with a CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 07 Feb. ####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 050031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Feb 04 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4358 N16W44 242 20 4 CRO 3 B 4362 S16W08 206 30 4 CAO 6 B 4366 N14W07 205 1090 17 FKC 47 BGD 4367 N09E25 174 50 9 CAO 5 B 4368 S10E25 173 40 2 HSX 1 A 4369 S04E30 168 40 2 CSO 2 B 4370 S19E39 159 10 1 AXX 1 A 4371 S23E47 151 50 8 DAO 10 B 4372 S23W54 252 10 3 AXX 1 A