####018002163#### FXXX10 KWNP 230031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Sep 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 23-Sep 25 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 23-Sep 25 2025 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 1.67 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 3.33 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2025 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2025 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002311#### FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.2 at 22/1609 UTC from an unnumbered region near the SE limb around S13. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4226 (S11E47, Dsi/beta) and 4217 (S16W31, Cko/beta-gamma). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 25 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,550 pfu observed at 22/1235 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels due CH HSS influences on 23-25 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 310 km/s to near 530 km/s. Total field showed an increase beginning at 22/0040 UTC to a maximum of 19 nT at 22/1112 UTC before gradually decreasing to around 11 nT. The Bz component ranged from +17/-13 nT. Phi angle was negative. .Forecast... CH HSS influence is expected to persist through 23 Sep and slowly diminish to background levels on 24-25 Sep. Solar wind speeds are likely to continue around 500-550 km/s range on 23 Sep based on WSA-ENLIL Model guidance. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23 Sep as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24 Sep followed by mostly quiet conditions on 25 Sep as HSS activity gradually subsides. ####018001168#### AXXX82 KWNP 230031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Sep 22 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4216 N11W73 251 50 3 HSX 2 A 4217 S16W31 209 250 14 CKO 15 BG 4220 S18W69 247 200 12 ESI 12 B 4221 N04W39 217 100 2 HSX 1 A 4223 S18W16 194 10 3 AXX 3 A 4224 S13W22 200 40 6 DAO 5 B 4225 N10E01 177 200 3 CAO 4 B 4226 S11E47 131 180 8 DSI 6 B 4227 S19E40 138 70 3 HAX 3 A 4228 N04E54 124 30 1 HSX 1 A