####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 240031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Dec 23 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4312 N17W09 53 40 2 HSX 4 A 4315 N21E07 37 10 1 AXX 1 A 4316 S08W03 47 80 8 CSO 8 B 4317 N10E35 9 260 12 EKI 15 BG 4318 N05E41 3 50 6 DAO 6 B 4319 S09E52 352 10 1 AXX 1 A 4320 N06E68 336 30 1 HSX 1 A ####018002691#### FXXX12 KWNP 240031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Weak C-class activity was observed from Regions 4316 (S08W03, Cso/beta) and 4317 (N10E35, Eki/beta-gamma). Moderate growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 4317 along with some consolidation of the leader spots. Slight growth was also observed in Regions 4318 (N05E41, Dao/beta). New Region 4320 (N06E68, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with an increasing chance for M-class flares over 24-26 Dec due to the return of old Regions 4294 (S15, L=284) and 4296 (S15, L=272). During these regions last rotation, they produced 17 M-class flares and 2 M-class flares, respectively. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,560 pfu observed at 23/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Sola wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged approximately 700 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-25 Dec as influence from the positive polarity coronal hole persists. Additional enhancements are possible on 24 Dec due to a CME that is expected to pass close to Earth which left the Sun on 20 Dec. Waning conditions are expected on 26 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active levels due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active conditions on 24-25 Dec under continued CH HSS effects, and possible influences on 24 Dec from a CME (which left the Sun on 20 Dec) that is expected to pass in close proximity to Earth. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 Dec under waning CH HSS conditions. ####018002098#### FXXX10 KWNP 240031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 24-Dec 26 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 24-Dec 26 2025 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec 26 00-03UT 4.33 3.67 2.00 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.67 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 1.67 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 24 Dec due to persistent CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 24-Dec 26 2025 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec 26 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 24-Dec 26 2025 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec 26 R1-R2 30% 40% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts through 26 Dec.