####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 140031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 13 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3628 N08W64 1 180 3 HAX 4 A 3633 S08W23 320 110 6 CSO 8 B 3634 N27W17 314 280 9 DKI 17 B 3635 N23E13 284 30 10 CAO 7 B 3636 S21E46 251 100 5 CSO 5 B 3637 S11E66 231 20 4 CRO 3 B 3638 S17E70 227 30 1 HSX 1 A ####018002427#### FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1/Minor) levels due to an impulsive M2.4/Sf at 13/0502 UTC from Region 3637 (S11E66, Cro/beta). Multiple C-class flares were also observed just beyond the SE limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 3634 (N27W17, Dki/beta). The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable or slightly decaying. A CME was observed off the N limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/1648 UTC, likely associated with a C5.5 flare at 13/1459 UTC from Region 3634. Analysis is in progress, however, given its northerly trajectory, an Earth-directed component is unlikely. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 14-16 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 16 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed averaging around 390 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT with the Bz component between +4/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, in addition to continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind parameters are expected to recover to nominal levels on 16 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Unsettled to Active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely, beginning late on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr, due to the passage of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, combined with CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Apr as conditions wane. ####018002136#### FXXX10 KWNP 140031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 00-03UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.67 2.33 09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 2.00 1.00 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14-15 Apr due to CME and CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 13 2024 0502 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 14-16 Apr.