####018002045#### FXXX10 KWNP 030031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 00-03UT 4.00 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 3.67 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 R1-R2 25% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 03-05 Nov. ####018002791#### FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.0 flare at 02/0026 UTC from a region beyond the east limb. Region 4267 (N02W65, Cso/beta) produced a long duration C8.2 flare at 02/1246 UTC. Region 4273 (S12E27, Dri/beta) rapidly emerged and was subsequently numbered. A new region was observed near N23E83, but remains unnumbered at this time in favor of better viewing conditions for proper classification. The remaining active regions were unremarkable in comparison. A large CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning just after 02/1100 UTC, but giving the source location just beyond the eastern limb it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were oberved in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate) through 05 Nov as old active regions are anticipated to return to the northwestern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 10,260 pfu at 02/1650UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels as HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was 5-8 nT and the Bz component underwent a few southward deflections reaching -5 to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds varied between approximately 490 km/s and 620 km/s, but overall displayed a decreasing trend. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to reflect the influence of a waning CH HSS, with a return of ambient-like conditions on 05 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to slowly diminishing CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, on 03 Nov. Primarily quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 04 Nov as HSS influences draw to a close with quiet conditions prevailing on 05 Nov. ####018000762#### AXXX82 KWNP 030031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Nov 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Nov 02 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4267 N02W65 62 90 3 CSO 2 B 4272 N22E63 294 70 3 CSO 2 B 4273 S12E27 330 30 4 DRI 9 B