####018002136#### FXXX10 KWNP 141231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 00-03UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 3.00 03-06UT 1.00 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 2.00 3.67 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 3.33 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 2.00 1.00 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14-15 Apr due to CME and CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 14 2024 0232 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2024 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 14-16 Apr. ####018003155#### FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1/Minor) levels due to an impulsive M4.3/1f flare at 14/0232 UTC from Region 3637 (S10E60, Cso/beta). Regions 3633 (S10W30, Cso/beta), 3634 (N25W24, Dao/beta), 3638 (S17E63, Hsx/alpha) and new Region 3639 (N29E72, Bxo/beta) all produced C-class activity this period. Along with Region 3639, Regions 3640 (N18E71, Axx/alpha) and 3641 (N16E26, Cso/beta) were numbered this period. Slight growth was observed in Region 3634. The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable or slightly decaying. Numerous CMEs was observed this period. The first was a CME off the N limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/1648 UTC, likely associated with a C5.5 flare at 13/1459 UTC from Region 3634. Analysis indicated an Earth-directed component is unlikely. The second was a CME off the ESE limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at about 13/2206 UTC, likely associated with the C2.1 flare at 13/2109 UTC from Region 3638. Analysis indicated an Earth-directed component is unlikely. The third was a CME off the WNW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at about 14/0448 UTC, likely associated with a filament eruption on the WNW limb beginning at about 14/0400 UTC. Analysis indicated an Earth-directed component is unlikely. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 14-16 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 16 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed varying between about 450 km/s early and about 350 km/s late. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT with the Bz component between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on late on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, in addition to continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind parameters are expected to recover to nominal levels on 16 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely, beginning late on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr, due to the passage of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, combined with CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Apr as conditions wane.