####018003535#### FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to low levels with numerous C-class flares observed, particularly from Region 4366 (N14W33, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). This region produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C6.9/Sf event at 06/1021 UTC. This region remains the largest and most magnetically complex group on the disk, showing some minor intermediate spot growth. Region 4366 produced seven C-class flares. Region 4371 (S23E20, Dai/beta-delta) continued to slowly grow and produced an impulsive C2.1/Sf flare at 06/1754 UTC. Both Regions 4362 (S17W35, Cao/beta) and 4372 (S23, L=254)) produced C-class activity, but showed little spot change. All other regions were unchanged. New Region 4373 (N10E66, Hsx/alpha) emerged on the disk. A large, partial halo CME was observed in the NE beginning at 05/2336 UTC. This event originated on the far-side of the disk and is not considered to have any Earth-directed component. No other CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity is expected due to M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for 07-09 Feb, with a chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to the complexity of Regions 4366 and 4371. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at or below moderate levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 08 Feb, increasing to high levels on 09 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a low chance to exceed S1 (Minor) levels over 07-09 Feb due to the high eruptive potential and increasingly favorable position of Region 4366 in the western hemisphere. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from the passage of the complex CME associated with the 01 Feb X8.1 flare into a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained relatively constant below 8 nT through the period. About midway to late in the period, the Bz (north-south) component reached its greatest southward deviation of -6 nT. Wind speeds indicated a slow, steady decline in wind speeds declining from about 600 km/s to end-of-period speeds approaching 500 km/s. The Phi angle remained in a negative orientation. .Forecast... The solar wind is expected to remain elevated through 07 Feb as Earth remains in the negative polarity CH HSS. A disturbance is anticipated on 08-09 Feb with the arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to remain generally active on 07 Feb before a likely return to Minor (G1) storm levels on 08 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 09 Jan due to CH HSS effects. ####018002288#### FXXX10 KWNP 070031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 00-03UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.33 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 1.67 3.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.67 3.33 3.00 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.67 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.33 3.67 21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on 07-09 Feb due to the magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active regions on the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 35% 35% 35% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater levels on 07-09 Feb due to the magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active regions on the visible disk. ####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 070031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Feb 06 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4358 N17W71 243 10 5 BXO 3 B 4362 S17W35 207 20 3 CAO 3 B 4366 N14W33 205 1100 19 FKC 20 BGD 4367 N09W02 174 40 7 CAO 4 B 4368 S10W03 175 50 2 HSX 1 A 4369 S03E03 169 70 2 HSX 1 A 4370 S18E11 161 10 1 AXX 1 A 4371 S23E20 152 150 9 DAI 8 BD 4373 N10E66 106 60 2 HSX 1 A