####018001226#### AXXX82 KWNP 250031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Sep 24 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4216 N11W99 250 50 1 HSX 2 A 4217 S17W61 212 140 3 CAO 10 BG 4220 S17W87 245 150 11 ESO 5 B 4221 N04W67 218 60 2 HSX 1 A 4224 S13W51 202 50 4 CSO 5 B 4225 N10W28 179 150 3 HSX 2 A 4226 S11E18 133 220 8 DAI 15 BG 4227 S19E15 136 60 4 HAX 5 A 4228 N04E27 124 30 1 HSX 1 A 4229 S04W46 197 70 5 CSI 8 BG 4230 S11E44 107 70 10 DSO 5 B ####018002401#### FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to two M-class (R1-Minor) flares from Region 4224 (S13W51, Cso/beta). The experienced slight growth but remains relatively simple. Regions 4229 (S03W48, Dai/beta-gamma) and 4217 (S17W61, Cao/beta-gamma) which sit above and below Region 4224 - both experienced growth during the period and were responsible for multiple C-class flares. Region 4226 (S11E18, Dsi/beta-gamma) was also responsible for a few C-class flares and showed growth in both its leader and trailer spots. A new, simple spot trailing AR 4229 was observed, but remains unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating observatory reports. All other spot were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 27 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue around moderate levels as CH HSS influences wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Weakening negative polarity CH HSS can be seen in the solar wind parameters. Total field remained around 5 nT with a variable Bz component between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were on a gradual decline from 550 to 480 km/s. The phi angle was negative. .Forecast... Mostly nominal conditions are expected through 26 Sep. Relatively weak enhancements are anticipated by late on 27 Sep as negative polarity CH HSS influences begin. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. .Forecast... Primarily quiet levels are expected through 26 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 27 Sep as negative polarity CH HSS effects begin. ####018002183#### FXXX10 KWNP 250031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Sep 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 25-Sep 27 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 25-Sep 27 2025 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.67 12-15UT 1.00 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2025 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 24 2025 1913 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2025 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts through 27 Sep.